In January of 2023, wagering on sports was legalized in my home state of Ohio. While I’ve never been one to obsess over sports bets, I had a tendency to buy a moonshot ticket on my favorite Cleveland teams when I’d find myself in Las Vegas. I could look at the 700:1 odds on the Browns winning the Super Bowl for months before my dreams were crushed.
I’m primarily a baseball fan, however, and this year, I decided to run a fun experiment:
What would happen if I bet $1 on every baseball game?
Yesterday was Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, and there were 15 games on the schedule. That seems like a perfectly exciting way to get this experiment started. I will be wagering $1 on every MLB game, all season. That’s 2,430 games over 6 months. I’ll post the outcomes every morning, and a running tally of my overall profit (or loss.)
The image below shows the kind of chart I will share each day. This is March 30, 2023’s results, but I will make a separate post for that day.
I’ll post a chart like this each day. Here’s an explanation of the columns:
Bet Win? – Did my pick win the game? This means that I won.
Home Bet? – I’m interested to see if certain teams play better at home or on the road. Just for tracking purposes.
Moneyline – If you aren’t familiar with sports betting (and I wasn’t three months ago), the moneyline odds are a reflection of what you would expect to win if you made a $100 bet. So if the moneyline is +210, and I bet $1, that means my profit would be $2.10 if my team wins. (I’d actually get $3.10, but that’s because they also return your $1 bet.)
Decimal – This is a conversion chart for me, since the moneyline can be confusing to read sometimes, especially when the value is something like -105. This is the actual mathematical odds on my wager. So if the decimal is 3.10, and I wager $1, I would expect to win $3.10. (Keep in mind that this includes my original bet, so my “profit” is actually only $2.10.)
If the moneyline is > 0, the formula for the decimal is: (MONEYLINE/100) + 1
If the moneyline is < 0, the formula for the decimal is: 1 – (100/MONEYLINE)
You see why I say this can get confusing?
Wager – This is going to be $1 for every single game.
Winnings – This is the final outcome of the game. If my pick wins, this will be Decimal * Wager. If I get it wrong, it will be $0.
Profit – This is the money I made in the winnings, minus the wager. The new money I have acquired.
How do you think I will end up after 2,430 games?
|3/30 -$0.60||3/31 +$4.40||4/1 -$6.60|
|4/2 -$3.75||4/3 +$1.50||4/4 +$5.80||4/5 -$5.49||4/6 -$3.95||4/7 -$1.98||4/8 -$0.70|
|4/9 +$2.35||4/10 -$3.30||4/11 -$2.16||4/12 -$1.41||4/13 -$0.17||4/14 +$9.17||4/15 +$0.81|
|4/16 -$2.24||4/17 +$6.14||4/18 -$4.04||4/19 +$5.02||4/20 -$3.44||4/21 +$0.39||4/22 -$3.67|
If you want to follow along with my bets each day, create an account on Draft Kings. I’m @jeffblankenburg.
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