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2023 MLB Bets

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In January of 2023, wagering on sports was legalized in my home state of Ohio. While I’ve never been one to obsess over sports bets, I had a tendency to buy a moonshot ticket on my favorite Cleveland teams when I’d find myself in Las Vegas. I could look at the 700:1 odds on the Browns winning the Super Bowl for months before my dreams were crushed.

I’m primarily a baseball fan, however, and this year, I decided to run a fun experiment:

What would happen if I bet $1 on every baseball game?

Yesterday was Major League Baseball’s Opening Day, and there were 15 games on the schedule. That seems like a perfectly exciting way to get this experiment started. I will be wagering $1 on every MLB game, all season. That’s 2,430 games over 6 months. I’ll post the outcomes every morning, and a running tally of my overall profit (or loss.)

The image below shows the kind of chart I will share each day. This is March 30, 2023’s results, but I will make a separate post for that day.

I’ll post a chart like this each day. Here’s an explanation of the columns:

Bet Win? – Did my pick win the game? This means that I won.

Home Bet? – I’m interested to see if certain teams play better at home or on the road. Just for tracking purposes.

Moneyline – If you aren’t familiar with sports betting (and I wasn’t three months ago), the moneyline odds are a reflection of what you would expect to win if you made a $100 bet. So if the moneyline is +210, and I bet $1, that means my profit would be $2.10 if my team wins. (I’d actually get $3.10, but that’s because they also return your $1 bet.)

Decimal – This is a conversion chart for me, since the moneyline can be confusing to read sometimes, especially when the value is something like -105. This is the actual mathematical odds on my wager. So if the decimal is 3.10, and I wager $1, I would expect to win $3.10. (Keep in mind that this includes my original bet, so my “profit” is actually only $2.10.)

If the moneyline is > 0, the formula for the decimal is: (MONEYLINE/100) + 1

If the moneyline is < 0, the formula for the decimal is: 1 – (100/MONEYLINE)

You see why I say this can get confusing?

Wager – This is going to be $1 for every single game.

Winnings – This is the final outcome of the game. If my pick wins, this will be Decimal * Wager. If I get it wrong, it will be $0.

Profit – This is the money I made in the winnings, minus the wager. The new money I have acquired.

How do you think I will end up after 2,430 games?

Monthly Summary:

March: +$3.80

April: -$11.72

3/30 -$0.603/31 +$4.404/1 -$6.60
4/2 -$3.754/3 +$1.504/4 +$5.804/5 -$5.494/6 -$3.954/7 -$1.984/8 -$0.70
4/9 +$2.354/10 -$3.304/11 -$2.164/12 -$1.414/13 -$0.174/14 +$9.174/15 +$0.81
4/16 -$2.244/17 +$6.144/18 -$4.044/19 +$5.024/20 -$3.444/21 +$0.394/22 -$3.67

Raw Data


Draft Kings

If you want to follow along with my bets each day, create an account on Draft Kings. I’m @jeffblankenburg.

2 responses to “2023 MLB Bets”

  1. Jambone Avatar

    My initial thoughts are that you will do much better before the All-Star break than after. Reasoning: Oddsmakers will be much more adept at determining the correct underdog and, hence, correct odds after it has become apparent which teams have improved, which teams pitching staff have issues, who the sleepers are etc……
    MoneyBall in its truest sense!!!!!

    1. jeffblankenburg Avatar

      Looking forward to the journey. I’m enjoying the lack of adeptness so far!

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